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Indeed, the scale of the most recent movement of Russian units along its western and southern borders caused a shortage of railcars which, in turn, caused disruptions to civilian companies’ ability to supply their customers with agricultural machinery. 1 This availability allows the Russian General Staff to redeploy its forces at any given moment and with frequency, especially under pre-war or wartime conditions when disruption of civilian rail traffic is not a big concern.
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In early 2021, there were some 66,000 working flat railcars available on Russian rails, which is more than enough to transport the equipment of the entire Russian Ground Force units. Counting Trains and PlatformsĬlosely examining logistics preparations and, in particular, the movement of military trains can provide better quality assessments of the true nature of Russian military activities and their size. What separates training exercises and signals from a change in force posture and preludes to Russian military intervention? Several factors help distinguish the two, but the most relevant factors for understanding Russia’s recent movements near the Ukraine border and Zapad-2021 are threefold: (1) significant movement of personnel and equipment close to borders (2) significant positioning of the equipment and personnel near the areas of the Zapad-2021 exercise and (3) hostile international context and threats to Russia’s political interests. The upcoming “Zapad-2021” exercise is likely to tick all of these boxes, although the main focus could be placed on the defense of Belarus, highlighting the advances made in the Belarus-Russia defense relationship. Some Russian military exercises are simply training activities others seek to signal Russian resolve to maintain the status quo and the rest serve domestic and international propaganda purposes. However, not all Russian large-scale, strategic-operational, or readiness exercises are a prelude to military intervention. What the most recent troop redeployments into the Western Military District (WMD) have highlighted is that, within a month, Russia can redeploy units from other districts to create a favorable conventional balance ratio at chosen axes, including against the Baltic States. The sudden and large scale of the deployment and the ambiguity surrounding the drill’s goals raised concerns that Russia was preparing to militarily intervene again in Ukraine. The main component of the exercise was a mobility drill, which involved a redeployment of approximately 20,000 to 30,000 Russian forces from its Southern, Western, and Central Military Districts into the Persianovskiy and Pogonovo training ranges near Ukraine and Opuk and Novoozerne in Crimea. It involved a redeployment of troops that would be able to conduct a strategic-level exercise at best or create a new axis of advance against Ukraine at worst. In April this year, the Russian Armed Forces conducted a readiness exercise, the scale of which was unprecedented. Telling the Difference: An Exercise or Changing Force Posture? This will be an important exercise to better understand Russian-Belarusian military integration and the potential future use of Belarusian territory by Russia. Russian force and equipment prepositioning near Ukraine in April 2021, as well as the Russian government’s announcement that it will deploy 20 additional military units to its Western Military District (WMD), indicate that the exercise will be particularly large. Last held in 2017, this exercise comes at a time when Russia’s relations with the West are at their lowest point following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and combat troop deployment to Eastern Ukraine in 2014. In September, Russia and Belarus will hold their quadrennial “Zapad” or Western operational-strategic exercise. Responding to Egregious Human Rights Abuses.
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